Thursday, May 17, 2007
Want to beat your head against the wall? Try to understand the science relevant to global warming. Good luck. There are literally 10s of thousands of scientific reports of all qualities and deeply divided support. Bottom line scientists agree on very little. The scientist have divided into two camps advocates and skeptics. I choose these names because global warming is the most political science on the globe. Why? Money. We can blame Bush senior and Margaret Thatcher. When he came to office spending on climatologic was 150M. When he left office it was 10B. Global warming is big business. 10s of thousands of people are making a living on global warming papers. Each yea their proposals need to be shriller to get additional funding. You also have to recognize that large political organizations have jumped on the issue and are using for their political goals, the environmental movement, moveon.org and Anti growth Marxists.
After 30 hours of researching the scientific and political crap I will try to guide you to make your own conclusions. There are few facts and lots of agenda oriented papers on both sides of the issue.
Lets start with the few facts. Global warming in the last 100 years is a fact. The earth’s atmosphere has risen 0.7 degrees Celsius. Everyone agrees. Check the graphs:
Well there is one more thing you need to know, what is going to happen? Who knows? The same scientists who can’t tell if it is going to rain tomorrow are predicting temperature and climate effects 100 years from now with 3 digit accuracy. The only thing that is certain is that the biggest effect will be in the Northern Hemisphere. Effects will vary greatly, but it is certain that places with moderate weather will get even nicer weather. The north will get warmer and more productive agriculturally. But deserts will get a lot hotter. The Middle East and Northern Africa are screwed.
The other Temp. Graph you need to know. It is taken from the now famous Antarctic ice core samples, which were also used to calculate CO2 levels. Both numbers have a degree of error but the shape of the graph is meaningful. The blue cooling periods represent the ice ages and the red, the intervening warming periods. Note the max temp variation, from –9.5 to near +3 degrees. This is the most important graph in earth climatology because it is caused by the 800 lb gorilla of earth climatology, orbital mechanics. The earth wobbles and tilts in cyclical patterns known as Milankovitch cycles. See the backup for more detail. No matter what else happens, greenhouse gases, nuclear winter, ice ages are going to happen every 100K years. Yea, and it is going to warm in between. Fact. But since 100K years is a long time, nobody cares.
The other fact you need to know is what are green house gases. An honest answer from Answers.com is:
The major natural greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36-70% of the greenhouse effect on Earth (not including clouds); carbon dioxide, which causes 9-26%; methane, which causes 4-9%, and ozone, which causes 3-7%. It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes a certain percentage of the greenhouse effect, because the influences of the various gases are not additive. (The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for the gas alone; the lower ends, for the gas counting overlaps.) Other greenhouse gases include, but are not limited to, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and chlorofluorocarbons (see IPCC list of greenhouse gases).
Notice the wild variation. What do you want for 10B dollars? Notice the two 800 lb gorillas above, water vapor and clouds. Wait a minute clouds are not green house gases. True, but clouds effect weather more than any other atmospheric variable. Why are some places deserts? No water vapor and no clouds, just intense solar radiation. Very hot, but it’s a dry heat. Want cooler temperatures you need clouds. The IPCC does not even list water vapor as a greenhouse gas. What is an IPCC? The UN International Panel on Climate Control. But more on that later.
That all you need to know. Huh? The other 10 million pages are hotly contested by scientists on both sides of the issue. Don’t want to read poorly written jargon filled crap, how about some videos. You can find Al Gore’s speech on “An Inconvenient Truth” to moveon.org. The last 20 minutes is all Bush bashing. The DVD released to schools cost $25. Want to know what your kids are being taught; the curriculum guide to the video is here. Want to hear the other side, see the video “The Great Global Warming Swindle”. Both videos can be found backup .
Politicalization of Global Warming. There is a significant and loosely organized anti human growth crowd in the world. They want the industrialization of the west reversed and the industrialization of Africa prevented and the increases in India and China stopped. After the fall of the Soviet Union and Communism was no longer popular, the commies took over the anti growth movement, and other Global organizations such as the Sierra Club, Moveon.org, Peta and Greenpeace as well as the UN. Patrick Moore cofounder of Greenpeace left because of the anti capitalist influx. With 10B dollars on the table annually, it is no wonder that this crowd is into Global Warming big time. The goals of global warmers are the same as the anti capitalists – stop growth. To quote Al Gore, “there are 3 factors creating environmental catastrophe 1. Population explosion 2. Scientific and Tecnological Revolution. 3. Our way of thinking.” Sounds like an anti growther.
These guys are also fighting each other. The greatest reduction of man made CO2 would occur if oil and coal fired electric plants were replaced by nuclear plants. But the enviromentalist wacos want no nukes. They have won for the last 30 years. Environmentalists have also shut down refineries in the US for the last 30 years. How do you get alternative fuels, you need refineries. Want to destroy the US economy, destroy all the refineries. 100M people would be out of work. It would take 3 days to walk to the unemployment office. No trucks means no food. We would all starve. The anti growth wacos would win.
Liberty or Death