Monday, January 15, 2007
It has been 5 years since the President’s state of the Union address in Jan 2002. The US and the World were waiting to hear how the US would respond to a major attack on US citizens in the US. We know now as much intelligence today as Bush did in 2001. In Bush’s speech 11 Jan. 2007, he admitted to some small mistakes and resolved to prosecute a new plan. Today we can all be as informed as the President, and go back to Jan 2002 and assess his actions with the same intelligence that he had. I will only talk about the significant players, but there are many more. I have presented what I would have done based on the same intelligence and capabilities that Bush had in Jan 2002.
US – Clinton left Bush with a severely depleted military. 500,000 less troops. Significant shortages of material. Forces deployed all over the world. Navy down to 300 ships. 12 carrier groups vice 15. Economy very dependent on middle east oil.
The American people had no clue who the enemy was. Had no understanding of the Middle East culture, strategic goals and capabilities. Al-Qaeda was not a household name. Many had heard of Osama.
Congress and the American people were looking to our commander in chief to inform us and to lay out a plan of action. They would support anything required to win.
UN – Corrupt, do nothing, hostile to the US. Adverse to any military action. US pouring Billions a year in dues and receiving nothing for our investment.
Afghanistan – Very hostile to the US. Islamist Taliban harboring major Al-Qaeda camps and leaders.
Iraq – Defying all UN resolutions, shooting at Americans. Thought to have WMD and prepared to provide them to our enemies, leading to another attack in the US.
Iran – At war with the US since 1979. Very hostile. Weak economy. Major supplier of arms and money to our enemies. Has Syria as a surrogate. Has Hezbollah as a military action arm. Has billions in oil revenue to fund their goal for ever increasing dominance of the Persian Gulf region and all of it’s oil. Very motivated. Government hostile. People angry at its own government.
Palestinians – The trailer trash of the Middle East. Millions of young frustrated males with no future and ready to follow any cause that would allow them to lash out at those responsible for their condition, Israel and the US. Several armed militant organizations, Fatah and Hamas being the 2 largest. Hostile to the US. People hate us.
Saudi Arabia - Lots of money and rich citizens. Weak government that will provide some support to the US. People split into two camps, moderates and Islamists. Very hostile clerics. Biggest purveyors of hate against the US. Run Madras schools all over the world teaching hate for America to kids 6-18. Rich citizens funding hate and arming radicals all over the Middle East.
Lebanon – War torn, divided country dominated by Hezbollah. Very weak government. Under control of Syria and therefore Iran.
Pakistan – Nuclear power. People hate us. Fragile government, led by a military dictator. Country divided into moderates and Islamists who would like to see their dictator dead. Exporter of nuclear technology.
Russia – Nuclear power. Resurgent nationalism and imperial ambitions. Run by defacto dictator oppressing freedom and exporting arms and technology to our enemies. Weak economy. Organized crime. Cannot account for 1000 nuclear weapons. Army, but no navy. Covertly hostile to the US.
China – Nuclear Power. Imperialistic. Covertly hostile to the US. Weak economy, very dependent on US to fund their economy. Exporter of arms and technology to our enemies.
Balance of the Persian Gulf Oil Countries – Weak governments that will support the US. Populations split into moderates and Islamists. Lots of foreign workers with no rights that form a dangerous threat to the indigenous people and governments. Not a serious threat to the US.
Vulnerabilities and Capabilities Analysis
US – A medium size Army, undefendable boarders, economy highly dependent on imported oil, ethics limit scope of action, fractious political system. Superb, mobile military, strong economy, limited world political influence.
UN – Totally dependent on member dues, action can be vetoed.
Afghanistan – Weak conventional army, weak economy, undefendable boarders. Land locked. Very determined fighters, fanatics. No ethics limitations. Significant source of trained an armed unconventional forces.
Iraq – Large but poor quality army, oil based economy, sectarian population, modest dependency on imported food, determined fighters. WMD. Supports terrorists. No ethics limitations.
Iran – Poor medium size army, very large palace guards, oil-based economy, highly dependent on food imports, medium dependency on technology imports. Sectarian but compliant population, palace guards are fanatical fighters, strong Middle East political network. Supports Middle East violence. Fanatical Government, no ethical limitations.
Palestinians – Weak government, militia armies, no economy, fractious political system, fanatical fighters, suicide bombers, dependent on foreign money, and food imports, no ethical limitations.
Saudi Arabia - Oil based economy, large private wealth, weak government, modest army, politically fractious, politically well connected in Middle East, dependent on food imports, mix of ethics.
Lebanon – Very weak government. Sectarian but compliant population, very weak army, weak economy, occupied by highly skilled foreign controlled militia, mix of ethics.
Pakistan – Nuclear power, strong but fragile government, medium size army, missiles, sustainable economy, sectarian population. No ethical limitations, fanatical fighters.
Russia – Nuclear power. Weak economy. Strong army, missiles, Strong government, dependent on food imports, sectarian population. No ethical limitations. Strong world political connections.
China – Nuclear Power, sustainable economy, very dependent on US trade. Large army, strong government, compliant population, no ethical limitations, overpopulated, growing water shortage. Strong world political connections.
Balance of the Persian Gulf Oil Countries – Weak governments, small armies, oil based economies, compliant population, fanatical fighters, dependent on food imports.
US Threat Analysis Homeland undefendable to unconventional attacks. Al-Qaeda determined to kill us. Iran determined to kill us, Iraq source of WMD to unconventional forces to use against us, Russia and China actively supporting our enemies, Wealthy Saudi Arabian nationals funding our unconventional enemies, purveyors of Islamist hate, Madras schools exporting hate for America. Russia and China providing technology to our enemies, blocking our political goals. Middle East oil very vulnerable to conventional and unconventional and political disruption. Sudden loss of oil would destroy the economy. Islamists in all Middle Eastern countries serious unconventional threat when financed, armed and trained. Islamists cannot be separated from moderates. Islamist clerics motivators of hate.
2001 capabilities. Undefeatable conventional and nuclear forces, limited army size. No practical financial limits. Very mobile conventional forces. Small allied support.
My 2001 Action Plan. Based on intelligence, threats and capabilities eliminate foreign oil dependency by 2007. Add 500,000 additional ground troops by 2005. Since defense is very limited, go on continuous offense. Long term goal, eliminate financed, armed and trained Islamists, by killing the Islamists and eliminating funding, arms and training. Continuously educate and motivate the American people by clearly identify enemies, identify seriousness of the threat, stress that we must be prepared to go it alone, stress victory will be long term, but winning will be continuous, warn that other attacks like 9 –11 are unstoppable in the near term. Massive funding and unwavering by-partisan public support is essential. Provide monthly national addresses to report progress and identify obstacles, launch massive propaganda campaign to bolster American resolve and weaken our enemies. Eliminate all Middle Eastern immigrants and remove all Middle Eastern nationals from the country.
Near term goals, begin significant expansion of domestic oil and parallel alternative fuels, bio, coal and shale degasification, nuclear power. Advise allies to do the same. Stop all UN funding. Attack Al-Qaeda to get cheap victory and bolster public support. When militarily ready eliminate Iraq WMD capability and put American military presence in the center of the Middle East. When achieved, move military out of populated areas. Build strong defensive position in the open with a port and airfields. Remove all nationals from inside our perimeter. Build airfields if necessary. Bulldoze a 5-mile flat kill zone around our perimeter.
When oil independence is achieved, instability in the Middle East is a good thing. Use military to control flow of Middle Eastern Oil. Use military to control movement of food into the Middle East. Demand that Middle Eastern nations kill their Islamists, kill Islamist clerics. Eliminate Islamist funding, arms and training. Eliminate Madras schools. Do it or face economic ruin and starvation. If still uncooperative foment instability, by funding and equipping 5th columns, especially in Iran. Play off of tribal, sectarian and religious hatreds to provoke internecine violence. Get our enemies to kill our enemies. If still uncooperative, threaten Muslim holy sites. This will encourage them to attack us in our open prepared defenses with no unconventional advantages. Reward cooperation with food and oil. Punish resistance by stopping same.
Use economic threats and if necessary boycotts to get Russia and China to stop aiding our enemies.
Liberty or Death
Agree there was none found, but the decision had to be made on the best information available. Even the Brits with a far superior intelligence service believed there was WMD present.
It is not unusual for competing intelligence agencies (DIA, NSA, CIA, state) to have differing opinions. The president has to choose what he thinks is the best supported estimates. Regardless of the facts Bush believed there was WMD in Iraq.
Who did Gen Trainor try to convince and who told him that he was wrong? Rummy?
Libert or Death