Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Recent intelligence releases, followed by pundit analysis have proved that with out a doubt, Bush and his advisors did not have a clue about Islam and what was going to happen when he went into Afghanistan and Iraq. He did not expect the current sectarian violence and the degree of Iraqi hatred of Americans. He expected the Taliban to fold forever. Our military admits that we attacked with a small mobile conventional force, equipped and trained to crush the Iraqi Army. Complete success. Then came random acts of violence by certain tribes followed by Al-Qaeda seizing an opportunity and finally sectarian militias and death squads. Our military was caught with their pants down and has been reacting ever since to convert to an army of occupation and insurgency. Problem is we had enough troops to whip their army but we needed 300-400,000 troops for a successful occupation. We don’t have them. Make no mistake most Iraqis appreciated us for getting rid of Saddam. But interviews and polls have now proven that the Iraqis expected us to leave. We did not. Worse we helped create a government that the Iraqi people saw as “made in America”. Is there any doubt as to why this government can’t gain the support of the people?
With regard to Islam, Bush today still believes Islam is a religion of peace. All creditable authors disagree. I will pick one to make my point.
Marshall Frank’sFrank’s “Brutally Frank: Militant Islam in America”. Highly recommend you read this. He says 20% of Muslims are militant and embrace violence. Everyone agrees with that. 80% are so called moderate, they believe in the same goals as the militants (expansion of Islam), they don’t agree with the use of violence. But that does not mean they are not a threat. They allow the militants to live among them in silence. This provides significant cover and makes detection 10 times more difficult. This applies to America, Europe, Iraq and Afghanistan. Some quotes from Frank’s book tell us how naïve our government is:
According to Dr. Ali Sina, author and former Muslim:
"The only disagreement between a moderate and terrorist Muslims is when and how the jihad against the infidels should take place. Otherwise, all the Muslims, whether moderate or extreme, believe in the same book. That book calls for waging war against the non-Muslims until they are subdued and humiliated."
Muzammil H. Siddiqi is a Harvard-educated imam, highly regarded as a moderate among Muslim and non-Muslim circles, including the president of the United States. He stood with G.W. Bush during the post 9/11 services at the National Cathedral in 2001 to represent the Muslim faith and to condemn the attack against America. Weeks later, he was an honored guest of the president at the White House where Mr. Bush was given a copy of the Quran.
However, during a rally one year before, Siddiqi had given a speech across from that same White House where he and other Muslim leaders praised Palestinian terrorists and issued a warning to Americans to side with Palestinian Muslims against the Jews, or face Allah's punishment. Compared to notorious terrorist, Abu Musab al Zarqawi, he might be considered moderate. At least, he doesn't chop off heads from infidels.
In 2003, Siddiqi issued a fatwa, or religious decree to the Fiqh Council of North America:
"... As Muslims we should participate in the (American) system to safeguard our interests and try to bring gradual change. We must not forget that Allah's rules have to be established in all lands, and all our efforts should lead in that direction."
Omar M. Ahmad is another moderate Muslim leader who helped to establish the Council on American-Islamic Relations, (CAIR) a powerful lobbying group based in Washington. He also had been an honored guest at the White House, and invited by the president to join the day of mourning at the National Cathedral after 9/11.This is what the so-called moderate Muslim said at an Islamic conference in Fremont, California in 1998:
"Islam isn't in America to be equal to any other faith but to become dominant. The Quran should be the highest authority in America and Islam the only accepted religion on earth."
Imam Siraj Wahhaj is an American black who converted to Islam and became a recognized leader in the Muslim community, particularly in Brooklyn where he does most of his preaching. Dubbed a moderate by government officials, Wahhaj holds the honor of being the first Muslim ever to give opening prayer in the U.S. Congress. He was the recipient of commendations from police for helping to drive out crime in the neighborhoods. Brooklyn authorities proclaimed a day in Wahhaj's name for his giving of "outstanding and meaningful achievements."
How can government officials be so fooled? Or perhaps, they are blind from burying their heads so deep in the sand. The same year he led the prayer in congress, 1991, he gave a speech to Muslims in Texas where he predicted that America would fall unless it accepts the Islamic agenda.
In another speech in New Jersey, Wahhaj was heard to say,
"Take my word for it, if six to eight million Muslims unite in America, the country will come to us."
This so-called moderate Muslim hosted the blind Sheikh, Omar Abdel-Rahman at his Brooklyn mosque, the same man convicted of the first World Trade Center bombing. He even appeared in court as his character witness.”
There is an emerging 3rd group of Islamists called Reformists who actively denounce violence and will point the militants out. 2 were interviewed on Glenn Beck recently, 1 on Bill Maher and 1 cited in Frank’s book. But they are very few in number and some have been killed for speaking out.
So what? Get over it Liberty or Death, you can’t change the past. I agree we need to go forward from where we are today, warts and all. I only regurgitate the past to ask this question, “Do we know what to do now in order to win?” Do we even know who our enemy is? Remember they picked us.
With only 1/3 the number of troops needed, Patraeus has define an achievable goal, capture and occupy the mixed Sunni/Shia neighborhoods in Baghdad. Declare success and turn the mess over to Iraqi Army.
What about the rest of Sunni Land, with the insurgents and Al-Qaeda? They will melt away and we are not going to catch them without Iraqi Sunni help. What happens if we leave? We have a 10% chance of diplomatic success. With our state dept. that may be less. The prophesy of all the hand wringers is that Armageddon will break out with Iran backing the Shia and Saudi Arabia and Jordan backing the Sunnis. From the president on down throw this out without challenge. Certainly for Iraq it will be Armageddon. So what? A stable Iraq is not a primary goal on the war on terror. In the big picture all of the Middle East countries are our enemies. Anyone who thinks any of them will support us does not read the facts. To put it simply, a poll of the Middle East shows that way more than 50% of the people hate us, and Saudi Arabia is at the top of the list at over 80%. See the post directly below. We should be doing everything we can to get these guys shooting at each other. Does not mean we have to leave, just get out of the way and protect the oil.
But, back to the current plan. President Bush is wishful thinking. No body on the Republican side of the aisle believes there is a reasonable chance the Iraqis will be ready to take over in November. Lindsey Graham Sunday called it the “last best hope”. Certainly not high praise from a Bush supporter. Does that mean we are going to lose? With the current plan, yes. What plan will work?
We came with an overwhelming conventional force, lets use it conventionally, not as policemen. But we have no clearly defined target? The bad guys blend in with the non combatants denying us the use of our superiority weapons. Its rifles against rifles and IEDs and EFPs. The enemy is dictating and we are reacting. There is no clearly identifiable enemy for a conventional attack, to do what we do better than anyone else, an all out offensive. In order to do that you have to have a clearly definable enemy.
Well, It has been there all the time, the Baathists. Guess where the money comes from, guess where the weapons and training come from? Been there the whole time. Maliki wanted to go after them but our state department is leaning on Maliki to stop the de Baathification. We are our own worst problem.
So what do we do? What it really means is that we are going to have to play political hardball with the Maliki government and local leaders throughout Iraq. It is time for Rice to earn her pay. What is our message? General Patraeus will build a block wide corridor across Baghdad, splitting the Shia from the Sunni. This block wide corridor will be bulldozed flat. The people will be relocated. Where? Hundreds of thousands of professional Iraqis and another hundred thousand poor are refugees in Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. There is plenty of empty housing. In November the Iraqi army will take over policing no mans land. Anyone who enters no mans land by any means other than through checkpoints will be shot on sight. Sunnis and Shia who find themselves on the wrong side of the ditch will be given an opportunity to relocate. If we draw the line with care that will be an equal number in both directions.
To the Shia local leaders. Accepting money and arms from Iran will be punished. We will provide the money and you don’t need arms, the Iraqi Army will protect you. All militias will be disbanded. Already happening. New twist, Sadr you are persona non grota. Stay in Iran.
To the Kurds, don’t piss off Turkey. No incitement or arming of Turkish Kurds. 5-year time out to get Iraq stabilized.
To the Sunni, moderate leaders (the only ones invited), privately identify the Baathists, and others who are harboring the insurgents and Al-Qaeda. It can be anonymous, drop names in the hat. No Americans watching. American will be coming to your neighborhoods. Going door to door. Secretly point out the location of your hot heads.
To Maliki. Get the oil deal completed. Divide up the police. Sunni in An-Bar, Shia in the south and Kurds in the North. Provide more equal power sharing for the next 5 years, then have free elections.
To the American state department et al. Get serious about reconstruction and jobs creation or get fired. The last 3 years you have been stonewalling.
What about the insurgents and Al-Qaeda. You have 3 months to get out, and then we are coming to get you. No police action, a full military attack, using artillery and Air Support. Targets, all the blocks, towns and camps identified by the moderates. Oh by the way that includes all Baathists.
Why will this work? The insurgents, foreigners and Al-Qaeda have to eat, sleep, get paid and resupplied with ammunition and bombs. They have all the comforts of home. That will stop. Who is supplying the ammo, living quarters, money and intelligence? The Baathists. Who is supplying the fuel, electricity, water and food? We are!!! After three months all support to the identified bad guy areas will be cut off.
Saddam had a police state. That is actually good news. It means that all Iraqis have decent, verified identity papers. All the Baathists are identified. Any one in An-Bar without papers, you are arrested or shot. All male Baathists over the age of 12, you are gone to Syria. Take your families if you want.
After 3 months without food, water, electricity and fuel, the bad guys will be highly motivated to fall back on support, i.e. Syria. Anyone male remaining in the bad guy zones, kill them on sight. After, allow the poor moderate Sunnis to populate the nice Baathists homes.
This is a mission the American army can execute expeditiously with the troops it has now. The ROEs will be like a pitched battle. There will be collateral damage. There was when we invaded and were fighting the Iraqi Army. The difference will be that we gave them 3 months to get out of the way.
All travel into An-Bar and out of An-Bar must go through checkpoints. Sunnis going to Shia land better have a good reason. Same with the Shia going to An-Bar.
Realism check. After the surge, expect the Iranians to filter back into Shia Land and Al-Qaeda into Sunni Land. We are going to be there a long time.
Liberty or Death