Thursday, November 16, 2006
It is extremely important for the American people to understand all the bad guys in the Arab and Persian Middle East. There are a lot actors and they have different motivations and goals. The American public desperately needs an education on the players and judging from Bush's Invasion of Iraq the US government needs to be educated as well.
Top down. There are nations and governments. The governments of most Middle East Nations want us to just go away and have us buy their oil. Some hate us. Demeanor towards the US could change in a heartbeat with the assassination of moderate leaders. Pakistan has a dictator who supports us (sort a ), but one bullet could turn Pakistan into the most dangerous Islamic fanatic nuclear power in the world.
No Middle East nation is homogeneous. They began as a bunch of tribes. Tribal bonds are still strong today. The populations of every nation are mixed ethnically and religiously. This mixture is a source of friction and many times violent. Jordan, the most moderate state has a 70% Palestinian population. Iran is only 57% Persian. Cultures like the Kurds straddle 4 national boundaries. Moderate Gulf states imported large numbers of immigrants to do the dirty labor for the oil rich natives. These immigrants now exceed the native populations. Clearly a dangerous mixture. Everyone hates the Palestinians who are a complex mob of homeless people. That is one reason they all hate Israel. Israel pushed the Palestinians out when they moved in creating a greater Palestinian problem for the moderates.
Take away the oil money since 1950 and you have a bunch of very poor guys 3rd worlders. You can substitute UN money (mostly US) as the Palestinian oil. This creates a two class system of the rich and powerful and the dirt poor, another source of friction.
All societies in the Middle East are capable of producing suicide bombers. This completely bewilders Americans. How many suicide bombers could the US produce? This alone should tell you that there is a fundamental cultural difference between Islam and Judeo Christians. Islam is a religion still in transition from a violent crusading religion to a peaceful religion. The Koran and Sharia law authorize violence in the name of Allah and called for by authorized clerics. Judaism and Christianity have completed their violent phase. No more burning of witches, heretics and mandatory state religions. No more popes leading armies like Mohammed.
Islam is also very insecure. Remember the Mohammed jokes. If you are a Moslem try writing a book critical of Islam. Got a death wish? Islamics who renounce their religion are heretics and automatically receive the death penalty under Sharia law. Regardless of what moderates say, Moslems are very insecure, quick to insult and believe that violence is justified by Islam when they are wronged.
Many of the Middle Eastern Islamics still follow the beliefs and actions of Mohammed directly. We can argue whether that is violence coupled with religion or religion coupled by violence. The result would be the same, violent spreading of Islam since Mohammed. Islam holds little distinction between religion and government. There are secular leaders, but they must submit to the will of religious clerics. Iran is a perfect example. Secular President under the thumb of clerics. Civilians can run for office, it is a democracy. However in order to run you must be approved by a board of clerics. Dissidents need not apply. Iran is a special case; it has openly called for the death of Americans and Zionists since 1979. It also is a country hijacked by religion, thereby providing wealth and power to extreme clerics.
Extreme is an incorrect characterization. Since Islam began as a violent religion and is still in transition, the so-called extreme or fanatical clerics are the original Orthodox. The peaceful clerics are the reformed. Make no mistake religion is the defining factor in Middle Eastern culture. All other traits are subordinate in most of society. One could say the same thing about the bible thumpers in the Southern red states, but they obey the same law as all other Americans. Not true of the Middle East. The Orthodox still follow Islamic law, the Sharia. To those people the secular laws are subordinate. Try holding hands with a woman in public in Saudi Arabia. Religious police have the right to cane you on the spot. Secular laws may prohibit killing of Infidels on Islamic soil. Sharia does not. Orthodox Islam believes in the sanctity of death, not the sanctity of life. When an authorized Orthodox cleric calls for a Jihad against another culture those who die in that cause go directly to paradise and receive 70 virgins.
This Orthodox culture is strengthened by Madras schools founded by Saudi Wahabbists and funded by Saudi rich. Read their textbooks. From the first grade on they are taught more and more complex ideas on hate. By graduation the have been taught death to Infidels especially Zionists and Americans. There are Madras schools in the US and the rest of the world, wherever there are Islamics.
You cannot reason with Orthodox Islam. They do not want the something traditional thugs want, power and wealth. They want the world to be Islam or dead, especially Israel and America. Education, military experience and arms are a part of the capabilities now available to the Orthodox clerics. Education brings chemical, nuclear and biological technology. So Orthodox Islam has both the means and the motivation to kill us. What is missing? Organization and leadership.
Recent years have seen a radical change in these missing elements. Orthodox Islam now has access to charismatic leaders and organization. Osama is smart, the Iranian president is smart, Hamas is smart and Hezbollah is smart. With one bullet Pakistan leadership would be Orthodox and smart. All of these guys are organized. Saud financial leaders and other moderate rich are smart and a great asset to the other organizations. American Muslims like American Irish fund Orthodox Islam. But it is unclear whether Orthodox Sunni clerics are organized. Shiites defer to bloodline Imams and have an internal hierarchy.
Why are we number two on their hate list? The Zionists are number one because they stole Islamic soil. Islam requires all the faithful to throw all Infidels off Islamic soil. We are number two, first because we support the Zionists, because of our decadent culture and are a cowboy nuclear super power that can wipe anyone off the map in 1 minute.
For the past 6000 years the key to defeating an enemy culture was to defeat the leaders and their organizations, typically armies. The Japanese culture was radically different. They would have gladly fought to the last person, atomic bombs or no atomic bombs. Their Emperor, a near deity intervened for one reason, he did not want the Japanese culture wiped off the map. The Japanese people hated us because their Empower said so. They stopped hating us because the Empower said stop. For almost all other cultures throughout history it was the leaders and organizations that precipitated violence against another culture. The people were not demanding that the Gauls be wiped out. One ambitious general decided that. The Catholic Church's Jihad to make the entire world Catholic or dead finally came to an end when the people were given alternative leadership. The people were never the driving force of Catholic Jihad. The leaders were. Christianity believes in the sanctity of life. But what about Islam?
The history of Islam is important to understand. Orthodox Islam has never been defeated, it has only been contained. It began in an Arab culture that was prosperous and educated, more so than the west. Twice Europe almost became Islamic. Once with the Moors and again with the Ottoman Turks. The Islamics leaders and capabilities were exhausted. What happened? In the lull, the west raced past the Islamics in education, technology and population. By the end of World War I, Islamic capabilities were in decline and Christianity kept getting stronger. While in the dark ages, capabilities wise, Islam began the transition from total war to pockets of peace. The lack of charismatic and capable leaders brought back the ascendancy of tribes. Moderate Imams began to appear and gather followings. But that transition was not complete when, after World War II Britain gave the Islamic world self rule and unlimited wealth, oil. At first moderates controlled that wealth. The next phase beginning with the 60s saw the advent of Islamic thugs, not true believers but opportunists. They showed the world how a tiny few could do great harm to the West. The methods were hijackings and bombings. They hid among the rest of Islam and were funded by what we called radicals. We called them terrorists. Legally, we equated them with criminals. We pursued them as criminals. Accountability was individual.
What also happened after World War II is that the Jews stole Islamic soil from the Palestinians, both imposing a refugee problem on Arab states that did not want them and violating Sharia law. The Zionists are a continuous source of hate that can be focused by leaders and organizations. Two conventional wars were fought to drive them out. Then the moderate secular leaders accepted their existence. This was anathema to Orthodox Islam. You won't find compromise in their play book, only violence and patience.
Lets race forward to current time. Islam is still in transition, what is new is that the Orthodox have gained more and more access to wealth that can buy the capabilities of destruction. They may use the methods of the thugs of the 60s but they are not terrorists. Their goals are not terror or ransoms, they are not thugs. Their goal was and still is the spread of Orthodox Islam. Orthodox Islam lives side by side with moderate Islam. Their center of gravity is Orthodox clerics. They are now supported by Charismatic leaders and organizations. This organization is developing WMD, which Orthodox Islamic would use in a heartbeat. Remember they sanctify death not life.
So how do you stop Orthodox Islam? As long as they are dispersed among moderate Islam you cannot eliminate them with conventional means. You can nuke the whole Middle East and the problem will cease to exist. That is the only external solution that would totally succeed. You can also defeat them by attacking their center of gravity, their Orthodox Clerics. The British last year passed a law that allows the police to deport any cleric who preaches hate, violence and destruction. Try to find an Orthodox cleric among the Kurds. You won't. Whenever one opens shop they are visited by the local militia and run out of town.
Reform could come from within and the West could accelerate that by incentivising moderates to eliminate the Orthodox clerics. Is this realistic? Not today. First the public of America and its leaders have not a clue. Europe is waking up, Britain being first. But even France is beginning to crack down. But would Europe support the killing of Orthodox clerics. Not yet. America, no way. We have no idea what the real enemy is because our leaders refuse to speak it in public. Most are too ignorant. Jack Wheeler asked prominent members of homeland security, the intelligence community and congressmen what the difference is between Sunnis and Shiites. Nobody new. After reading this you will know more than you government.
So what is a clueless America to do? Containment. Given sufficient time Islam will go the way of Christianity. Afghanistan and Iraq are Bush's attempt at containment. He has also captured 140M dollars Islamic dollars out of trillions. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda have safe havens in Pakistan. In 3 years, utter failure. Islamic money has diversified, seize all the oil and there will still be sufficient wealth to fund Orthodox Islam. What is the Afghan Opium trade worth? Have Americans destroyed a single one of those poppies? No, we don't take this threat seriously. Instead of crippling the infrastructure and organizations of Orthodox Islam, we attack a secular Iraq and drove the Taliban and Al-Qaeda to Pakistan. Rummy and Bush did not give the generals the 3 divisions they asked for. Therefore, We did not have the force to bag the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
What has Islam been doing while we have been fiddling? Iran will have big nukes within a year. One bullet in Pakistan will create an Orthodox Islam with big nukes and missiles that work. Hamas and Hezbollah have evolved into formidable organizations under the control of the Iranian clerics.
What can America do? After 9-11 Americans would support Bush doing anything to punish the Middle East. That support is gone. He has wasted it. Our only hope is for the Islamics to make a mistake. That is to attack us or Israel in a serious but not fatal way. Either with WMD or massive infrastructure damage, but not a knock out blow. When that happens, the American people will give our commander in chief the green light to retaliate with massive force. But do you see any political leader on the horizon who has that will or the knowledge to know who and how to attack?
I welcome any and all criticism, it critical that we get this right. Our lives depend on it.
Liberty or Death